In March 2025, gold was under $3k/oz – up over 10% for the year.
Back then, Citi projected that gold could stretch to $3,500 by the end of 2025.
Of course, gold soared much further by NYE, peaking over $4,200 for the year.
Today, gold is still over $4,500 – and to put it mildly, the gold investment market is bummed.
To reiterate: gold is up 50%+ over the last 12 months, and people are completely, utterly depressed in the world of gold investors.
This kind of market reaction is very rare.
It’s somewhat rare to see a market correction in a bull market like this (they typically only happen 2-4 times over a decade).
It’s rare to still be well above 12-month lows and for people to be bearish.
It’s rare for gold to fall this far, this fast (it hasn’t happened in 40+ years.)
And it’s impossible to know how far we are into this correction. I’ve been telling you to expect months of a sideways or bearish trend.
But today, Citi’s projections still have gold hitting $6k in 2026.
That would not be out of the ordinary for this kind of correction, brought about by liquidity selling due to spiking oil prices and constrained production through the Strait of Hormuz.
During an abrupt crisis, people are always surprised to see gold dip or stay flat, or even crash. But that’s a totally normal and common price reaction. Gold gets sold off with everything else, very typically.
But that’s a short-term reaction.
The 6-18 months AFTER the crisis is when gold shines.
The tide goes out on everything, and always seems to flow back into gold when the crisis subsides.
We saw this same kind of price reaction during the Great Financial Crisis.
Gold fell from $1,000 down to the $700s in late 2008. But by late 2009, it was back above $1,000 and never dipped below that mark since.
In March 2020, gold dropped 20%+ from the $1,600s to the $1,400s almost overnight as the Covid crisis unfolded. But by August 2020, gold soared over $2,000…
The crisis stings gold in the short term. That’s where we are right now. But in a year from now, it will be a different story. You’ll be looking back at March 2026 as one of the best buying opportunities of this bull run.
Best,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio